- A Nio executive quoted the report’s authors as saying it was their internal sharing of their recognition of the Nio brand and the battery swap model.
- Other conjectures include X acquiring TikTok and Truth Social and re-listing.
Two months ago, rumors that BYD was buying Nio (NYSE: NIO) generated a lot of attention. Now, a new analyst speculation is sparking new buzz.
In a research note, analysts at Haitong International laid out “five big conjectures for 2025”, one of which is that Xiaomi (HKG: 1810, OTCMKTS: XIACY) acquires Nio.
“NIO’s battery swapping network expands, even opening up other automobile companies under patent protection. Li Auto, TSLA, and Xiaomi establish a leading position in China’s smart driving sector,” the analysts wrote in both Chinese and English.
A Nio executive later responded, citing the note’s authors as saying it was their recognition of Nio’s battery swap model.
The research note was dated January 14, but was picked up by a large number of local media outlets only today, generating a lot of discussion.
Here are all the five conjectures listed by the team:
1) X acquires Tiktok (USD200bn) and Truth (USD12bn), completing a re-listing.
2) The ‘MAN alliance’ (MTK+ARM+NVDA) is established, forcing the formation of the ‘MIQ alliance’ (MSFT+Intel+QCOM) – PC, OS, CSP landscapes are shaken.
3) Intel spins off, selling fabless to QCOM, and establishing a JV named ASMC in US in the field of fab with TSMC.
4) Wearable, agentic, and robotic integrations complement smartphones, jointly driving the growth of tech electronics sonsumption.
5) Xiaomi acquires NIO…NIO’s battery swapping network expands, even opening up other automobile companies under patent protection. Li Auto, TSLA, and Xiaomi establish a leading position in China’s smart driving sector.
“The above is based on our knowledge and analysis of technology, regulation, and competition, and is intended as a direction of thought only, it is not a prediction based on sufficient evidence or information,” the team noted.
After the note sparked widespread discussion, Nio’s assistant vice president for branding and communications, Ma Lin, said in a Weibo post that his colleagues spoke with the authors of the note, who said:
When we did internal sharing, we were trying to express our recognition of the Nio brand as well as the battery swap model.
“Looks like the recognition is real and the conjecture is pure fiction,” Ma wrote on Weibo.
Nio is making a solid push in the battery swap business and has connected over 700 cities across the country, with each additional battery swap station having a positive impact on sales, Ma said.
The company’s founder, chairman, and CEO William Li had recommended Xiaomi’s founder, chairman, and CEO Lei Jun to launch battery swap-enabled models, and such models from other brands are not far behind, according to Ma.
“Indeed, CATL, which knows the most about batteries, is pushing the battery swap business model now, and the value of battery swap for EVs has been seen by the whole industry,” Ma added.
Wang Hua, general manager of Xiaomi Group’s public relations department, offered a diplomatic response earlier today.
“A friend sent me the following picture and asked me what I thought. He simply means that A made five big conjectures about the year 2025, and how the two companies that were guessed by A should respond?” Wang wrote on Weibo.
He listed three versions of his response:
1: Ask the person who made the conjectures! (Spoken version to a familiar friend)
2: The company does not comment on third-party conjectures (generic version)
3: What time is it and how many dishes? (Pretend-I’m-still-asleep version)
On November 22, a man suspected to be a BYD employee posted content in a WeChat status saying BYD would acquire Nio, sparking widespread discussion.
Both BYD and Nio later denied the rumor, and the man who posted the rumor was detained.
